We're actually not tied!

Ah, Jeremy, if only it were that easy. If we elected presidents via popular vote, then I would agree with you. But, unfortunately for y'all, Obama's lead in the electoral college (which, last time I checked, was the only thing that mattered) is about 100 EVs at this point. I assume everybody here has at least visited either Electoral-vote.com or FiveThirtyEight.com, but if you haven't you should. They cull statewide polls and amass an electoral projection. In any case, looking at the most recent statewide polls, it is clear that Obama has a clear lead over McCain. Let's see what polls should make all Republicans very cautious before they flaunt some immaterial national leads. I have cobbled together a makeshift table. It doesn't look pretty, but you can kind of read it. I don't know why blogger doesn't acknowledge multiple spaces. Oh well....

State EVs Obama McCain 2004 Net Bush
AK 3 41 45 27
IN 11 48 47 21
OH 21 46 45 2
MT 3 48 43 20
ND 3 43 43 27
VA 13 49 47 9
Tot 54 - - 106

This is not including 2004 Bush states such as IA and NM, which are almost certain to go for Obama in November. This is also not including states like MS, TX, GA, and SC: states in which McCain is ahead by 5-10%, but Bush won by well over that in 2004. The states above need to go Republican. Some for electoral reasons (OH), some for overarching reasons (MT, ND). If McCain loses Ohio, the ballgame's over. If McCain is losing ruby red states like Montana and North Dakota, there's a much larger problem with the Republican brand.

Obama is expanding the map, despite what national polls say. The Newseeek poll released yesterday is another example of a "tightening" race, but see here for why you should take that with a grain of salt. The fact is that the Republicans are on defense all around the country. In November the Democrats will probably gain about 10-15 House seats and 5-7 Senate seats. That kind of down-ticket support can only help Obama, especially in red states where the Democrat looks poised to win (such as AK and MS).

So Jeremy, you may crow about some national tracking poll, but it means nothing. In 1880 James Garfield won the popular vote by .1%, but won the electoral college by 59 electoral votes. History (see: 2000) has shown us that the popular vote is irrelevant, except when campaigns and supporters try to trumpet them as proof of some sort of success. Concerning Obama's move to the center, it doesn't matter. The campaign doesn't begin until the last balloon falls out of the Xcel Center ceiling on September 4th.

Frankly, what either of the candidates does now, barring a macaca moment, won't help or hurt them come November. In a few weeks, what Obama said about campaign finance will be forgotten, as will whatever gaffe McCain made on any given day. Policy changes might get noticed now, but they don't matter until the real campaign begins. National polls, on the other hand, will never matter.