Away For A While

I'm off to vacation for three weeks - depending on how bored I get, I may or may not be visiting here much.

In terms of politics, I doubt I'll miss much at home while I'm gone: it seems that this presidential race has settled comfortably into a slight to moderate lead for Obama, and, barring some sort of real scandal, that's unlikely to change before the conventions. Republicans can make hay over the fact that there's a new Newsweek poll out that shows a 12-point decrease in Obama's lead from their last poll, Democrats can point to polling that shows Obama ahead by anywhere from a 1 to 12 point margin. Really, when so much of the electorate isn't paying tons of attention to the campaign this summer, the polling will necessarily be all over the place - and this isn't likely to settle down until late August (although the naming of the vice presidential candidates, expected to come in early August, should shake things up slightly). In the mean time, look for more minor scandals and feigned outrages - the Obama camp will try to use Phil Gramm's remarks as fodder, and McCain's people will find something else to use against Obama.

What I will be following closely while I'm gone, though, is July 24th's by-election in the Scottish constituency of Glasgow East. For those interested in British politics, this is quite a big deal - a defeat for the Labour Party at the hands of the Scottish Nationalists could cost Prime Minister Gordon Brown his job. Although I tend to agree with Labour on most issues, I've become quite sick of Gordon Brown, and have come to believe that Labour would be better off without him. So, rather paradoxically, I'll be rooting for the rather loony Scottish Nationalists in this election, and for a major shakeup of the United Kingdom's political leadership. More on this later, perhaps.