More about the recent tracking poll that showed Obama and McCain tied:
If a student had 4 Bs and a D in a class, everyone would agree it was absurd to call him or her a "D student," based on one grade that, everyone would agree, was probably an outlier. It might show that the student was slipping slightly in the class, or it might show, as of late, the class had gotten too difficult, and that the student would continue to get Ds. But we wouldn't know either way, and therefore, it would be absurd to say that the student will get a D in the class.
Similarly absurd was Jeremy's claim that the one Rasmussen Reports poll showing McCain and Obama tied was indicative of the fact that the race is now even. He would have been better off to consult a set of polling averages, such as this rather excellent one from RealClearPolitics, where he would have noticed that 2 other polls conducted in the same timeframe as the RR poll both showed Obama ahead by 3 points. So claiming, based off that, the race is tied is, well, suspect.
This was made even more obvious by the fact that today's RR poll has Obama up 2 points, a 2-point "gain" over the weekend. Now, mind you, it's unlikely that anything that happened this weekend had enough influence to move 2 points - which is why this poll, like the poll that showed the candidates tied, is just random noise - Obama remains, it seems, ahead by about 1-3 points.
Now I do think Jeremy has something when he claims that McCain has some momentum, however slight, in this contest - if the polling averages continue to tighten, his theory will be born out. For now, though, not so much.
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2 comments:
no need to make my report card public, mr. revesz
despite my perhaps premature title, the point isn't that mccain would win if the election were held today. the point is that even if we look at your RCP average, Obama has very obviously lost ground in the past month. I'd contend that the reason is below: he is shifting to the center and playing traditional politics-- and if he continues to, McCain will overtake him.
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